Higher temperatures and more extreme weather are linked to increased conflict and increases in food insecurity. Climate change, resulting in a larger likelihood of droughts, floods, and other environmental disasters may thus have major implications resulting in negative economic consequences, especially for marginalized populations, including in various areas already suffering from humanitarian crises.
Climate shocks, such as floods and droughts, may also result in a setback in global gains towards gender equity. Massive job losses, shrinking of economies, loss of livelihoods, and weakened social protection systems caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and restrictions showed how vulnerable and exposed marginalized populations are to these environmental disasters.
AIR’s work is closely associated with ongoing challenges related to climate change and programs to increase the resilience of marginalized populations to climate change. AIR uses climate data from multiple sources to create domain models. AIR conducts randomized controlled trials and quasi-experimental studies to determine the impact of social protection and agriculture programs on climate resilience.
Recent examples of our work include the following:
- AIR is supporting USAID’s Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) project by managing a data warehouse and overseeing, maintaining, and improving the FEWS.NET website.
- The Food Security Third Party Monitoring (FSTPM) project provides critical, near real-time analysis to support targeting of life-saving support in some of the world’s most crisis-prone locations.
- AIR conducted an impact evaluation of a UNICEF and World Bank emergency cash transfer program in drought-stricken Madagascar, concluding that the program had significant positive impacts on households and children affected by food insecurity.
- USAID’s Partnership for Resilience and Economic Growth (PREG) Northern Kenya: Impact Evaluation Recurrent Monitoring System works with the Government of Kenya to build resilience among vulnerable pastoralist communities in arid and semi-arid lands.
- The evaluation of the Orange-Fleshed Sweet Potato and Maternal and Infant Health Program in Tanzania assessed mechanisms to increase long-term adoption of biofortified, drought-resistant, vitamin A rich sweet potato varieties to improve food security in the face of climate change.
- The Social, Economic, and Environmental Impact Assessment of Cotton Farming in Madhya Pradesh, India project assessed impacts of organic cotton farming on blue water consumption, soil acidification, carbon emissions, ozone depletion, and ecological and human toxicity.
- AIR is evaluating the Millennium Challenge Corporation, Kosovo Reliable Energy Landscape Project which addresses barriers to consumer investments in energy efficiency to reduce the gap between electricity demand and supply.
- AIR’s evaluation of the Appui au Développement du Menabe et du Melaky (AD2M) program in Madagascar provided evidence on efforts to improve irrigation infrastructure and to encourage farmers to use climate-resilient techniques.
- AIR conducted an evaluation of the Fiavota emergency cash transfer program which investigated its impact on households and children in drought-stricken Madagascar.