Noncognitive Factors as Predictors of College Outcomes: A Review of the Literature and an Analysis of HSLS:09 Data to Inform the NAEP Preparedness Initiatives

Alison Filbey, Jennifer Mazzella, Juliet Holmes
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The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) is tasked with monitoring educational progress across the country, particularly as it relates to student achievement. However, due to the cross-sectional design of the assessment, it has been difficult to establish the extent to which NAEP noncognitive survey measures are related to postsecondary outcomes.

This paper is part of a series of AIR-NAEP working papers that showcase AIR’s expertise and experience not only with NAEP but with other large-scale assessments and survey-based longitudinal studies. Explore all the AIR-NAEP working papers.

The current study, commissioned by NCES, examines the noncognitive factors associated with college preparedness. Through an in-depth literature review and exploratory analysis, it assesses the predictive validity of noncognitive factors that NAEP could incorporate into future student surveys. The study focuses on motivational constructs, attitudes toward school and school participation, and life skills and engagement in society. Using nationally representative data from the High School Longitudinal Study of 2009 (HSLS:09), it explores the relationship between high school noncognitive survey measures and enrollment in 4-year colleges three years after graduation.

The results of this research provide key evidence that attitudes toward school and school participation are not only related to concurrent academic performance but also to later college enrollment, even after controlling for prior academic achievement. Students’ academic motivation is also important, but much of the relationship between motivation and enrollment is captured by measures of students’ prior academic achievement.